Fri, 03 Dec, 2021


Butterfly Effect : A butterfly flaps its wings in the Amazonian jungle and a typhoon occurs in Europe.


By Amshu Upreti

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In reality a small act such as a butterfly flapping its wings can’t bring a typhoon but a small act can act as a catalyst in initial condition therefore altering the result. General Stanley McChrystal writes “ In popular culture the term “butterfly effect” is almost misunderstood as leverage. The reality is that small things in a complex system may have no effect or a massive one, and it is virtually impossible to know which will turn out to be the case.” What are the causes that bring a change in the world? It’s not nuclear war, selfish and power drunk politicians or natural disasters, According to the Chaos theory “The things that change the world are the tiny things.” 
Edward Lorenz was a meteorologist and mathematician, during the 1950's Lorenz searched models for weather prediction. In an experiment he entered the initial condition as 0.56, instead of 0.506127. As a result the outcome came surprisingly different from the predicted one. Hence, he deduced that a tiny change in the initial conditions had an enormous impact. To explain the concept to the non scientific audience, Lorenz used the butterfly analogy. The butterfly effect exposed the flaw in many other scientific models, it showed science to be less and less accurate than we have viewed since we have no measure of making an attempt for precise initial predictions and observation.
Some example of Butterfly effects are:-
-The bombing on Nagasaki:- Initially the US military intended to bomb the Japanese city of Kuroko, with the munitions factory as a target but on the day of bombing, the cloudy weather hid the city of Kuroko and they couldn’t aim for the munitions factory. The US pilots flew over the city thrice, finally gave up and changed their attack on Nagasaki. The split second decision of the pilots resulted in the history that we know now.
-The Academy of Fine Arts In Vienna rejecting Adolf Hitler’s application:- Hitler’s application was rejected not once but twice, possibly by a Jewish professor. This rejection was just a small initial step that metamorphosed the Hitler we know now. History probably would have been different if we were to see Hitler’s name beside Picaso. 
Butterfly effect is an understanding that needs to be taken in account in the field of business, market and shares where a small initial change can result in a large difference. Adapting careful measures could help bring a vast change in the outcome of the event.

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